New Zealand’s population is projected to become more ethnically diverse over the next two decades, with the Asian population increasing to 26 percent of the national population by 2043, the statistics department Stats NZ said on Friday.
The broad Asian ethnic group will have the largest rise, increasing from 16 percent of the population in 2018 to 26 percent by 2043, Stats NZ said.
In the median projection, the “European or Other” ethnic group will reduce its population share from 70 percent in 2018 to 64 percent in 2043. All other ethnic groups are projected to increase their population share, statistics show.
“While all ethnic group populations are expected to grow over the next two decades, the broad European ethnic group is projected to have the slowest growth,” population estimates and projections manager Hamish Slack said in a statement.
Different growth rates between ethnic groups reflect different rates of birth, death, and migration, Slack said.
Ethnic shares also vary significantly by age. For example, in 2018, Maori represented 27 percent of New Zealand’s youngest 0-14 years age group but only 7 percent of the 65+ years age group, he said.
As released in December 2020, New Zealand’s total population could reach 6 million in about 20 to 30 years, Slack said.
The Asian and Maori ethnic group populations are both projected to surpass 1 million, in 2024-2027 and 2028-2032, respectively, statistics show.
The Maori population growth is driven by above average birth rates combined with a young age structure, while the Asian population growth is driven by migration, Slack said.
The Asian population is projected to grow faster than the Maori population and surpass it in the early 2020s. The individual ethnic groups within the broad Asian population group, such as Chinese and Indian, are projected to remain significantly smaller than the Maori population group, he said.
The Pacific population is projected to surpass 0.5 million people in 2026-2031 followed by the Indian subgroup of the Asian population after the mid-2030s, statistics show. RSS
